Analysis On The Trend Of National Average Price Of PVC In 2018

- Feb 03, 2019-


In 2018, PVC market prices first after rising, then fell again, increased volatility, a wide shock trend, the center of gravity overall upward, above the 6000 level operation.

From the beginning of the year to the first ten days of March, PVC price fluctuation range narrowed, the trend resumed stable. Due to the lack of fundamental support, PVC on the action can not be enough, failed to break up. International crude oil prices continue to soar, boosting the trend of domestic chemicals. Part of the downstream enterprises before the Spring Festival centralized stock, resulting in tight supply of PVC market. The US Federal Reserve Rate Hike, sino-us trade war and other macro market news led to a rise in panic, PVC continued to look for support downward, the overall weak performance.

In April, the production enterprise installation spring overhaul plan was announced, with overhaul start PVC phase bottom-building end, the center of gravity rebound, back to the previous shock range operation. In april-may, the maintenance of the plant was concentrated, the lost production of PVC increased, and the consumption of social inventory increased obviously. Environmental Supervision looked back at the incident, leading to the supply of raw calcium carbide tension, the market to provide speculation opportunities. Enthusiasm to inventory good results, the main production area of enterprise shipments smooth, PVC upward test 7000 points clearance pressure.

In mid-june, downstream enterprises suffering from high cost pressure, high temperature and the arrival of the rainy season, making the downstream market demand weakened, PVC fell back to 6850 near the shock wash plate. The basic surface pressure is not big, the PVC price high level hovers. As domestic macro-policy to ease, the Renminbi continued to depreciate, hot commodity market performance, plate rotation rose.

At the end of August, PVC successfully broke through the 7000 integer level. PVC off-season is not obvious characteristics, into September, long continued to pull up, PVC climbed to 7525, a new high in the year. The lower reaches conflict with high-priced source of goods, the spot market trading weakened. Positive factors in the market gradually realized, PVC DISK rational callback.

Since October, the market bearish sentiment spread, the psychology of the industry weak, PVC center of gravity step down, fell below 7000 points integer level, back to step 6850 near the line support decline slow. Gold nine silver ten demand less than expected, PVC short finishing continued to go down, followed by breaking 6530,6300 near the support level. Bear emotions constantly released, PVC weaknesses do not change, the center of gravity attached to the five-day moving average decline, testing the early low point. Market point of view, PVC low stalemate finishing, slightly sticky. As the negative gradually realized, coupled with low inventory support, PVC continued to shock base.

Future Forecast: 2019 planned new capacity is still more, but the actual start-up time or a delay. In addition to routine maintenance, PVC starts will remain high and production is expected to increase. Macro-environment overall empty expectations, demand may have an impact. Therefore, PVC supply and demand relationship or weak, but the overall contradiction is not prominent. PVC continued to bottom, 2019 is expected to rebound stabilisation. The first half year PVC interval concussion, the second half of the year gradually climbed, above the space in 6850-7000, demand peak season after the center of gravity or high fall. We expect PVC to run between 6,000 and 7,000 in 2019, with prices still fluctuating sharply.